An Analysis of US Foreign Policy

Since its China as Hegemonic Challenger week and Earth Day, I though that this report might be an interesting issue to discuss (hat tip to Dan Drezner):

China will overtake the United States as the world’s biggest emitter of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) either this year or next, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

The estimate is much firmer than the IEA’s previous forecast, last November, that on current trends China would overtake the United States before 2010.

”Either this year or next year,” IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told Reuters, in answer to the question of when China would overtake the United States.

Talk about a challenge to a key US #1 ranking....

Of course, you have to consider that China is like 4 or 5 times the size of the USA population-wise. But, that's part of the allure of China as hegemonic challenger.

Chinese officials point to their country’s relatively low per capita emissions of greenhouse gases, saying historically the main culprits are developed nations, who have no right to deny economic growth to others.

U.N. data for 2003 put the United States top with 23 percent of world carbon dioxide emissions and China second on 16.5 percent. U.S. individuals were far bigger emitters, at 20 tonnes per capita against China’s 3.2 tonnes and a world average of 3.7.

But China is catching up quick and is having to try to balance 10 percent annual economic growth with environmental and energy supply issues.

Latest data shows China is building a coal-fired power plant every four days, British foreign ministry official John Ashton said on Monday.

Growth in the emerging Asian giant’s emissions puts in perspective Western efforts to fight climate change, Birol said.

”What we do in Europe may be with good intentions, may be very ethical... but if you put it in terms of numbers its meaning is very limited.”

A senior staff scientist at the U.S. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) last month estimated it was very likely that China would overtake the United States this year, estimating China’s CO2 emissions in 2005 at 5.3 billion tonnes versus the United States’ 5.9 billion, but with China growing much faster.

So what does this do to all the dire predictions of China overtaking the US at some point?

Labels: China, Global Warming